The UK economy and globalisation
Macro-economic policy is not something that usually excites me. Though I write about globalisation I am personally more interested in the dynamics of work flowing across borders and people migrating more easily towards work, and especially in the way that my industry – IT – enables and contributes to this change. This concept of a network society is fascinating and truly exciting, it’s something that our industry is enabling for every other possible industry and something we should be proud of.
But globalisation – and outsourcing across borders is one component of that process – scares a lot of people. Not just the petrol-bomb wielding protestors who show up at every meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), but normal people who are not as excited about the prospect of a global talent pool.
Firstly the change process means everything is different and less stable that it used to be - who considers they are getting a job for life these days? - and also there is a strong sense of how unfair it is to have to compete with low-cost workers in far-flung locations. We have seen offshoring demonised by many commentators, especially those with a ‘patriotic’ or local job protection agenda.
So it’s interesting to see a new report from the OECD that tries to look at the big picture of the UK economy in the light of how globalisation is changing our nation – including such topics as the real effect of offshoring.
I’m not going to detail the full report on this blog because you have a link here that lets you read it for yourself, but to quickly summarise some of the most important points raised by the report:
• The United Kingdom’s welcoming approach to globalisation has contributed to a strong growth performance. GDP per capita is now the third highest in the G7, compared with the lowest 10 years earlier.
• GDP growth has been close to its trend rate of around 2.75 per cent for a number of years, suggesting that the amplitude of the economic cycle is smaller now than in previous decades.
• This strong performance is not only due to the willingness to embrace the opportunities offered by globalisation, but also to sound institutional arrangements for setting monetary and fiscal policy as well as a period of robust trading partner growth.
• Despite offshoring, employment has grown steadily and unemployment is low.
• But the labour market position of many low-skilled workers needs to be further improved. The participation rate of some groups is low and others suffer from poor incentives to progress in work.
The implications are clear to me, and I’m not a student of the dismal science. The economy itself is in reasonable shape, but there are implications for the workforce. People need to be more flexible about work to compete in a more global environment and this can be a particular problem at the lower end of the pay scale, where locals may well pass on low-paid jobs encouraging the migration of those who are prepared to do them. This can create structural unemployment where job vacancies exist, but they are in the wrong place or just no one wants the work on offer.
There is a complex picture emerging of a work environment that will be very different by the time I retire (if I ever can), and the next generation at school today will have no conceptual understanding of the old rules of corporate loyalty – entering a company after graduation and working your way up the ranks. Outsourcing is a process that is facilitating a lot of this change and as that change accelerates it is an exciting place to be involved and focused, but scary too as the sand shifts everyday in this industry – I don’t even know what I will be working on in 2008, liberating or terrifying?



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